Wednesday, December 17, 2008

The Great Big Currency Bath

This rally looks horrible. It looks exactly like the one that ended in May and the one that ended in August.
The out look for future earnings is awful. Who are going to be the buyers this time round? The Government?

The Government debt is horrible too and promised to get much worse. The smart money people are the people who still have money. The people who have it are getting fewer and fewer and smarter and smarter. They long since gave up listening to the FED or any other marketing agency.

As for currency there is so much uncertainty about how that is going to pan out. I propose a very large wide range trade as opinion ebbs and flows in the gigantic international Bath with liberal quantities splashing out at each end. THose left with money when the spashing stops will be the lucky ones.

Hey I like that analogy. Think of Trichet and Bernanki as two infants in a Bath playing with the resonant frequency of sloshing water and seeing how much they can empty out each end.

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